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AI Capital Wire

AI, capital and geopolitics — decoded for investors.

Finance & Markets

US core inflation

How far is the Fed from the one number that governs its decisions?

2.79% year on year

-0.0 (-0.7%) since 1 Jun 2026

6.622
Jul 2021% year on yearFed target (2)Jul 2026

Core strips out food and energy, which is exactly why it matters for rate decisions and exactly why it feels wrong to anyone who buys groceries and fills a tank. Both things are true. The exclusion is not a claim that those prices do not count; it is an attempt to see the trend underneath the part that swings on weather and war.

For a site that spends most of its time on oil and conflict, this is the honest counterweight: the number the Fed is actually steering by does not contain the commodity shock directly, only its slow bleed into everything else.

How this is measured

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We compute the change against the same month a year earlier from the published index level — the standard year-on-year calculation, shown here so it can be reproduced.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (CPILFESL)·Retrieved 7 Sept 2026·Updated 1 Jul 2026

All observations
Date% year on year
1 Jul 20262.79
1 Jun 20262.81
1 May 20262.96
1 Apr 20262.99
1 Mar 20262.67
1 Feb 20262.73
1 Jan 20262.95
1 Dec 20252.84
1 Nov 20252.89
1 Sept 20253.02
1 Aug 20253.11
1 Jul 20253.05
1 Jun 20252.91
1 May 20252.77
1 Apr 20252.78
1 Mar 20252.81
1 Feb 20253.14
1 Jan 20253.28
1 Dec 20243.21
1 Nov 20243.29
1 Oct 20243.3
1 Sept 20243.28
1 Aug 20243.29
1 Jul 20243.23
1 Jun 20243.27
1 May 20243.39
1 Apr 20243.63
1 Mar 20243.82
1 Feb 20243.76
1 Jan 20243.86
1 Dec 20233.92
1 Nov 20234.02
1 Oct 20234.03
1 Sept 20234.13
1 Aug 20234.4
1 Jul 20234.7
1 Jun 20234.85
1 May 20235.34
1 Apr 20235.51
1 Mar 20235.57
1 Feb 20235.5
1 Jan 20235.54
1 Dec 20225.69
1 Nov 20225.97
1 Oct 20226.29
1 Sept 20226.62
1 Aug 20226.29
1 Jul 20225.9
1 Jun 20225.91
1 May 20226.03
1 Apr 20226.16
1 Mar 20226.48
1 Feb 20226.46
1 Jan 20226.05
1 Dec 20215.49
1 Nov 20214.97
1 Oct 20214.59
1 Sept 20214
1 Aug 20213.94
1 Jul 20214.21